Monstat’s preliminary data on foreign trade in the first nine months show that we spent 560.27 million euros on food imports, which is 20.3 percent more than last year in the same period. Economic analyst Predrag Drecun believes that one-fifth of the growth in food imports is the result of the influence of two factors, namely the dominant increase in the number of residents due to the arrival and stay of foreigners and, to a lesser extent, the influence of inflation.
“Demand has increased due to approximately 100,000 non-residents in Montenegro and to a lesser extent due to the influence of inflation. Given that import prices did not grow as much as domestic ones, I give priority to the growth of demand and the amount of food needed to feed the new 100 thousand inhabitants, which is approximately between about one fifth of the inhabitants living in Montenegro, that is one new city in Montenegro, that raises demand and that’s why imports are higher”, said Drecun.
In the first three quarters, we spent 124.1 million euros on meat imports, 86.36 million euros on vegetables and fruits, and 78.11 million euros on cereals and cereal products.
On the other hand, in the first nine months, food exports amounted to 31.76 million euros, which is 8.7 percent more than last year. In exports, meat and processed products dominate with 19.98 million euros and is 12.8 percent higher than in the same period last year, while the export of fruits and vegetables in the first nine months was worth 6.46 million euros and decreased by 11.8 percent.
“The weak growth of food exports is worrying. I believe that the increase in food exports was influenced by inflation, because food exports certainly did not increase by that percentage in real terms,” ​​said Drecun.
He believes that the economic development strategy of Montenegro should be reformed, primarily because of import substitution, which, as he says, could soon produce results, given that the value of imported food could reach one billion euros in the coming years.
“If a certain percentage of imports were to be substituted, it would be a significant incentive for the Montenegrin economy. We have the potential and I expect the new government to devote more attention to the real sector”, said Drecun and added that first of all attention should be paid to agriculture, which can be the carrier of development and can create new jobs and reduce the foreign trade deficit through import substitution.
According to the preliminary data of Mostat, the total foreign trade of Montenegro in the first nine months amounted to 3.3 billion euros, which is 5.6 percent more compared to the same period last year. Exported goods are worth 493.4 million euros, which is 5.2 percent less compared to the comparative period, while imports increased by 7.8 percent to 2.8 billion, so the coverage of imports by exports fell by two percent to 17.4 percent.
