Montenegro’s merchandise trade deficit moved closer to €2 billion during the first half of 2026, reinforcing the scale of the country’s dependence on tourism receipts, foreign investment and external financing to cover the gap between what it produces and what it consumes.
Goods exports declined 7.4 per cent year on year to €261.4 million, while imports increased 3.4 per cent to €2.18 billion. The deficit consequently widened to approximately €1.92 billion, around €91.7 million more than during the corresponding period of 2025. Exports covered only 12 per cent of imports.
The imbalance is large even by the standards of a small, service-oriented economy. For every €1 Montenegro earned from merchandise exports, it spent more than €8 on imported goods. Tourism, transport, financial services, foreign investment, remittances and borrowing prevent that imbalance from translating directly into a balance-of-payments crisis, but they do not remove the underlying exposure.
Europe accounted for €246.6 million, or more than 94 per cent, of Montenegro’s exports. Imports from European markets reached €1.72 billion. Serbia remained Montenegro’s most important individual trading partner, but the relationship was heavily unbalanced: exports to Serbia amounted to €70.1 million, while imports reached €372 million, producing a bilateral deficit of about €302 million.
Bosnia and Herzegovina was the second-largest identified export market, buying goods worth €32.8 million, an increase of 38.8 per cent. Exports to Kosovo almost doubled to €21 million, while those to Croatia rose to €6 million. These gains were not sufficient to compensate for weaker sales to several established markets.
Exports to Switzerland fell 64.8 per cent to €7.6 million, exports to China contracted 69.4 per cent to €5.3 million, and shipments to Italy declined 32.6 per cent to €6.5 million. Exports to Slovenia decreased 25.4 per cent, while those to the Czech Republic fell by almost 78 per cent.
China supplied goods worth €287 million, up 10.6 per cent, making it one of the largest contributors to the trade deficit. Imports from Germany reached almost €204 million, Greece supplied €132.8 million, Italy €128.6 million, Croatia €125.1 million and Bosnia and Herzegovina €105.5 million.
The structure reflects Montenegro’s limited manufacturing capacity and its dependence on foreign vehicles, machinery, electrical equipment, fuel, pharmaceuticals, processed food and construction materials. A large share of consumption associated with tourism and real-estate investment also leaks into imports because domestic suppliers cannot satisfy demand at the required scale, specification or price.
The deficit is not automatically a sign of economic weakness. Imports of equipment and machinery can represent productive investment, while tourism-driven imports may accompany rising service exports. The concern is the absence of corresponding expansion in Montenegro’s merchandise-export capacity. Manufacturing production was broadly stagnant during the first half, while the increase in industrial output was primarily attributable to electricity generation.
Montenegro’s euroised economy has no national currency that can depreciate to restore competitiveness. Adjustment must come through productivity, investment, operating costs, export quality and the development of industries capable of selling outside the domestic market. The first-half trade figures indicate that this adjustment has yet to acquire sufficient scale.
