Montenegro could attract more tourists in 2027 while earning less from the sector, exposing a widening gap between record visitor numbers and the economic value generated by each stay.
The warning comes as the country reports stronger tourist traffic but faces persistent pressure from shorter stays, weaker spending per visitor, a highly seasonal business model and the dominance of private apartments over professionally managed hotels.
On September 10, 2026, Montenegro had 93,376 tourists, an increase of 14% from the same date a year earlier and almost 12% above the comparable level in 2019. The figures support the government’s claim that the country is attracting more visitors, but they provide only a partial picture of the sector’s financial performance.
Montenegro earned about €1.48 billion from foreign tourism in 2025, according to central bank data. Revenue in the first quarter of 2026 amounted to €86.4 million, around 2% lower than a year earlier, despite continued growth in parts of the tourism market.
The divergence suggests that growth in arrivals is increasingly being driven by lower-spending visitors, private accommodation and short trips rather than by higher-value hotel stays and organised tourism. It also raises questions about whether headline arrival figures remain an adequate measure of the industry’s contribution to the economy.
Official data showed 244,754 arrivals and 1.08 million overnight stays in collective accommodation during July 2026. Foreign visitors accounted for 91.6% of those nights, while coastal destinations generated 92.4% of the total.
Budva remained the largest single market, recording more than 464,500 overnight stays in collective accommodation during July. Serbia accounted for 25% of all foreign overnight stays, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina, the United Kingdom, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and France.
This structure leaves Montenegro heavily dependent on nearby markets and summer road traffic. Regional visitors are important for occupancy, but their average daily spending is generally lower than that of tourists arriving through organised packages from western and northern Europe. Montenegro’s limited air connectivity and shortage of internationally marketed hotel capacity make it harder to capture those higher-spending segments.
The accommodation structure is another constraint. Hotels represent only about 6% of the country’s total accommodation capacity, while private apartments, second homes and other individual properties dominate the market. Annual occupancy in core commercial accommodation is estimated at around 25%, well below the levels achieved by leading Mediterranean destinations.
Expansion of private accommodation has increased the number of available beds without producing a comparable increase in taxable revenue, hotel employment or local supply-chain spending. A substantial share of activity also remains outside formal reporting, weakening the reliability of official statistics and limiting public revenue from tourist taxes and value-added tax.
Montenegro’s price-to-quality ratio has become a further concern. Accommodation and hospitality prices have risen, but transport congestion, water-supply disruptions, waste-management problems and overcrowded airports continue to affect the visitor experience. During the summer peak, journeys between Budva, Tivat and Kotor can take several hours, reducing the competitiveness of some of the country’s most valuable coastal locations.
The risk is that additional visitors create higher infrastructure costs without producing sufficient incremental income. More tourists mean greater pressure on roads, beaches, utilities and municipal services, while shorter stays and weaker daily spending limit the revenue available to finance improvements.
Reversing that trend would require a shift from measuring success through arrivals towards indicators such as average daily rate, revenue per available room, occupancy, average length of stay and spending per visitor. Montenegro has not published a comprehensive analysis of some of these commercial indicators since 2019, leaving policymakers without a complete assessment of tourism productivity.
Improved air access could expand demand, particularly outside the summer season, but low-cost connections alone would not guarantee stronger earnings. The country would also need more quality hotels, better destination management, coordinated sales through European tour operators and tighter regulation of private accommodation.
Reopening major assets such as Sveti Stefan could strengthen Montenegro’s position in the luxury segment, where the economic return per guest is considerably higher. The resort’s international profile once helped the country attract affluent visitors and supported Montenegro’s wider reputation as a premium Adriatic destination.
Tourism remains one of the main sources of foreign-currency income for Montenegro and a central driver of employment, consumption and coastal property investment. Yet the current model is producing diminishing returns: visitor numbers continue to rise, while congestion, seasonality and the concentration of capacity in private apartments dilute the value captured by hotels, workers and public finances.
Without structural changes, 2027 may deliver another statistical record in arrivals while confirming a less favourable measure of performance — more people crossing the border, but less revenue generated by each visitor.
