The Adriatic state has expanded its luxury hotel stock and restored visitor numbers. Its next challenge is to generate more value from tourism without intensifying seasonal, regional and environmental pressures.
Montenegro has rarely struggled to attract tourists. Converting their presence into a more productive and resilient economy is proving more difficult.
International arrivals in commercial accommodation reached 2.5mn in 2024, broadly unchanged from the previous year. Yet tourism receipts declined 3.1 per cent to €1.5bn, according to the OECD’s latest country review. With visitor volumes holding steady while income fell, the figures point to a weaker spending mix or lower revenue per tourist.
This matters disproportionately. Travel generated 54.6 per cent of Montenegro’s service exports in 2024. Tourism is therefore more than a successful industry: it is a source of macroeconomic concentration.
The domestic market offers little protection when external demand weakens. Montenegrin residents accounted for only 3.9 per cent of overnight stays in 2024. Monstat data also show considerable reliance on neighbouring and eastern European markets: visitors from Serbia generated 23.5 per cent of foreign overnight stays, followed by Russia with 18.3 per cent and Bosnia and Herzegovina with 8.4 per cent.
Such dependence leaves the sector exposed to changes in air connectivity, visa policy, household incomes and geopolitics. A summer season disrupted in only a few important markets can quickly become a national economic problem.
Montenegro has nevertheless made visible progress in upgrading its tourism offer. Since 2012, it has opened 38 five-star hotels providing about 5,560 beds and 155 four-star properties with roughly 17,400 beds. More than half of its hotels are now rated four or five stars, compared with less than one-quarter in 2012.
Tax incentives helped drive that transformation. Investors in luxury properties have benefited from import VAT exemptions, reductions in real estate tax and, in some cases, relief from municipal land charges. The policy has given Montenegro a stronger presence in the high-end Adriatic market and attracted international hotel brands.
But better hotels do not automatically produce a better tourism economy. Luxury rooms cannot by themselves resolve congested roads, pressure on water and waste systems, shortages of skilled workers or the sharp concentration of activity in coastal municipalities and summer months. Nor do five-star classifications guarantee that more tourist spending will remain in the domestic economy.
The government’s Tourism Development Strategy for 2022–2025 recognised these weaknesses. It sought to extend the season, raise spending per visitor and distribute tourism more evenly across the country. Measures highlighted by the OECD include energy-efficiency support for hotels, grants of up to €20,000 for rural and household accommodation, and investment in northern attractions and ski centres.
The northern programme is intended to create a second tourism economy beyond the coast. Projects include the Žarski, Cmiljača and Štedim–Hajla ski resorts, modernisation of Kolašin 1600 and Savin Kuk, and development of Đalovića Cave, alongside new roads and utility infrastructure.
The logic is understandable. Northern municipalities need investment and employment, while year-round mountain tourism could reduce the country’s reliance on a short coastal season. But the projects require rigorous commercial and environmental assessment. Winter infrastructure is expensive, while warming temperatures make the economics of lower-altitude ski development less predictable.
Digitalisation may offer a less conspicuous but potentially more important gain. A new Tourist Information System, adopted in July 2025, is intended to automate registration, improve data collection and identify unregistered accommodation. Montenegro’s large informal rental market has long complicated tax collection, destination management and reliable measurement of visitor numbers. A system that works in practice could improve both public revenue and policy decisions.
The greater risk is that Montenegro continues to judge success primarily by arrivals, hotel classifications and additional bed capacity. The next tourism strategy should instead set measurable targets for revenue per night, employment productivity, year-round occupancy, regional distribution and pressure on local infrastructure. It should also distinguish genuine diversification from the simple construction of new resorts.
The OECD review presents Montenegro as a destination that has recovered its scale and improved its accommodation stock. Its evidence also suggests that the growth model is approaching its limits.
The country does not chiefly need more tourists at the height of summer. It needs visitors who stay longer, spend more, travel beyond the coast and impose a manageable burden on the places they visit. Montenegro has proved that tourism can be large. The harder task is to make it better.
