Goods imports reached approximately €2.61 billion in January-July, while exports amounted to only around €313 million.
Imports increased by about 3.4%, while exports declined roughly 4.4%.
Export coverage of imports fell to close to 12%.
The resulting merchandise deficit approached €2.3 billion in only seven months.
The imbalance partly reflects the structure of Montenegro’s economy.
Tourism operates economically as an export industry even though its earnings are recorded under services rather than merchandise trade.
Transport services, remittances and foreign investment provide additional external financing.
A large goods deficit is therefore not automatically unsustainable.
The underlying risk lies in what Montenegro imports and how the external deficit is financed.
Machinery and equipment imports can increase productive capacity.
Imports connected with hotels, energy infrastructure and construction may generate future income.
Consumption imports create a weaker long-term return.
Montenegro’s dependence on imported vehicles, consumer goods, food, machinery and manufactured products remains high because the domestic industrial base is narrow.
Foreign investment provides another important financing source, but much of it continues to flow into real estate.
Property demand has helped drive new-build prices to roughly €2,550 per square metre nationally, with coastal averages approaching €2,800-€2,900.
That capital supports construction, employment and tax revenue.
It does not necessarily increase the country’s export capacity.
This creates the central investment challenge.
Montenegro attracts substantial foreign capital, but the economic effect depends heavily on whether that money finances apartments and land or assets capable of generating recurring exports and productivity gains.
Energy offers one alternative.
Renewables, grids and electricity exports could reduce import dependence and increase external earnings.
Mining and mineral processing provide another.
Logistics, ports, digital infrastructure and selected manufacturing could broaden the export base further.
The tourism sector itself can also become more productive by increasing spending per visitor rather than simply visitor numbers.
Autumn tourism receipts should improve the broader current-account position after the summer season.
They will not materially change the structural goods deficit.
Montenegro will therefore remain highly dependent on international tourism, investment flows and external financing.
That model can continue functioning successfully.
But its resilience will depend increasingly on whether foreign capital is converted into productive assets capable of generating foreign exchange after the construction phase ends.
