Montenegro has imported around €11 billion of food since independence, while its agricultural base has contracted despite hundreds of millions of euros of public and international financing, exposing a growing disconnect between the country’s tourism economy and domestic food production.
An analysis by the Montenegro Chamber of Commerce estimates food exports over the same period were roughly ten times smaller than imports, leaving a cumulative food trade deficit approaching €10 billion.
The number of agricultural holdings has fallen from 38,798 to 26,711 over about 15 years, a decline of more than 30%.
At the same time, tourism growth is estimated to increase Montenegro’s annual food-import requirement by around 20%-25%, as hotels, restaurants and seasonal visitors create demand that domestic farms and processors cannot fully supply.
The figures highlight a structural weakness in an economy that has invested heavily in tourism but has struggled to develop the agricultural supply chain needed to serve it.
Montenegro imports significant quantities of meat, dairy products, fruit, vegetables, processed foods and beverages even though domestic tourism generates a large and relatively predictable market for those products.
That creates an unusual economic imbalance.
Tourism brings foreign currency into Montenegro, but part of that income quickly flows back out through imported food, fuel, equipment and other goods required to support the visitor economy.
Increasing domestic food production would therefore not merely support farmers.
It could improve the wider external balance by keeping more tourism revenue inside the country.
The investment pipeline is already substantial.
Agricultural investment from international institutions, the state and private sector through 2027 is estimated at around €400 million.
That includes approximately €97 million through IPARD II and III, €45 million from World Bank MIDAS programmes, around €25 million through IFAD and roughly €40 million from EIB, EBRD and bilateral financing, alongside other public and private spending.
The central question is why that financing has not yet translated into a stronger production base.
Farm structure is part of the answer.
Montenegro has many small holdings, fragmented land plots and relatively low levels of mechanisation and processing.
That makes it difficult for individual farmers to supply the volumes and consistency required by large hotels, supermarket chains and food distributors.
Seasonality also creates problems.
Hotels need reliable deliveries across defined periods and cannot depend on supply that fluctuates sharply with weather or small-scale production.
As a result, importers often provide easier logistics even when local alternatives exist.
Processing capacity is another weakness.
Agricultural value is created not only by growing crops or raising livestock but through slaughtering, packaging, refrigeration, storage, certification and distribution.
Without that infrastructure, domestic producers struggle to compete with integrated international suppliers.
The decline in the number of farms adds demographic pressure.
Rural areas have lost population as younger workers move toward Podgorica, the coast or abroad.
Agriculture therefore competes with construction, tourism and services for labour.
Rising wages in those sectors can make farming less attractive unless productivity and farm incomes improve.
That helps explain why additional subsidies alone may not reverse the trend.
The strongest opportunity lies in linking agricultural investment directly to commercial demand.
Montenegro’s tourism sector offers a customer base that many small agricultural economies would struggle to create.
Hotels, resorts and restaurants collectively purchase large quantities of food every year.
If producers can meet standards for volume, quality and reliability, tourism could serve as the anchor market for domestic agricultural expansion.
That would require stronger contracting between farmers, processors and hospitality companies.
Longer-term supply agreements could give producers enough revenue certainty to invest in greenhouses, irrigation, livestock capacity, cold storage or processing.
Hotels would gain more local products and potentially lower exposure to import disruptions.
The same logic applies to supermarkets.
Retail chains can provide stable demand but usually require strict quality standards, traceability and delivery schedules.
EU accession could intensify both the opportunity and the competitive pressure.
Montenegrin farmers will gain access to a much larger market and potentially greater agricultural support.
But they will also compete more directly with highly productive EU producers.
Investment before accession will therefore be critical.
IPARD and other programmes are intended to help farms modernise equipment, processing and food-safety standards.
The challenge has often been project preparation and the ability of smaller farmers to finance their own contribution before grants are reimbursed.
Access to credit remains important.
Banks may view small farms as higher risk because of uncertain cash flow and limited collateral.
Guarantee schemes, concessional lending and agricultural insurance could therefore have as much impact as direct grants.
Climate resilience will also become increasingly important.
Drought, heat and irregular rainfall can reduce production and increase irrigation requirements.
Investment in water management, protected cultivation and more resilient crops will be needed if Montenegro wants to reduce dependence on imports rather than see it deepen.
The €11 billion food-import bill accumulated over two decades shows the scale of the economic leakage.
It is unlikely that Montenegro can or should seek food self-sufficiency.
Imports will remain essential for a small market with limited agricultural land.
But the current gap suggests substantial room exists for domestic producers to capture a larger share of demand already present inside the country.
The €400 million investment pipeline gives Montenegro significant resources to attempt that shift.
The harder task will be converting financing into larger, more productive farms, stronger processors and supply chains capable of delivering consistently to the tourism and retail industries.
If that does not happen, continued tourism growth could produce an increasingly paradoxical result: record visitor spending alongside an ever-larger food import bill.
