Signals from the Central Bank of Montenegro indicate that the banking system has entered 2026 with solid liquidity buffers, despite mounting pressure from corporate arrears across the real economy. This apparent contradiction reflects a structural decoupling between bank balance sheets and the operating health of a large segment of domestic enterprises.
Banks continue to report capital adequacy and liquidity ratios comfortably above regulatory thresholds. Deposit bases remain stable, supported by household savings and public-sector cash balances, while non-performing loan ratios have remained contained relative to regional peers. These indicators support the central bank’s assessment that systemic financial stability is not under immediate threat.
However, beneath these aggregates, corporate payment discipline is deteriorating. Rising arrears among small and medium-sized enterprises are increasingly visible, particularly in construction, trade, and tourism-related services. Firms face a squeeze between rising labour costs, still-elevated input prices, and limited pricing power, especially in regulated or highly competitive segments. As a result, delayed payments to suppliers and tax authorities are becoming a default liquidity management tool.
For banks, this creates a selective risk landscape rather than a generalized credit shock. Exposure to weaker firms is typically limited, while lending has shifted toward better-capitalized corporates, households, and state-linked projects. Credit standards have tightened, reinforcing balance-sheet resilience but also constraining refinancing options for stressed businesses.
This dynamic has macroeconomic implications. While financial stability is preserved, credit allocation becomes increasingly conservative, reinforcing a two-speed economy. Stronger firms maintain access to finance, while weaker ones drift toward insolvency or prolonged stagnation. Over time, this can suppress investment and productivity growth, even in the absence of a banking crisis.
